Coffee Harvest Drop Predicted

November 07, 2010

As in the case of all crops, yearly weather changes cause ups and downs in the production yields. Location is everything in coffee as in most things in life. We’re soon to experience a down year: for the year 2011-2012, a world coffee harvest drop is forecast. According to a story by Heather Walsh on Bloomberg.com, the Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization is predicting that there will be a large shortfall of coffee production from the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil. Vietnam and India may see increases, but so far it doesn’t look like those increases will be enough to offset the drop in Brazil. At the same time, he sees consumer demand as increasing, following a year in which it fell slightly. There are various factors affecting the rising and falling yields. In Brazil, the harvest drop is due to what is being called the natural cyclical effect of the season following a bumper crop. After a record high, the trees need a rest so they produce less. Last year was a good year for Brazilian coffee production. Besides the need for soil and trees to rest, the amount of water involves a delicate balance. Indian and Vietnamese crops may see a production boost due to increased rain, while in Guatemala, excess rain may have the opposite effect. It’s not always so simple, as the coffee crema plot thickens. More than just the climate in terms of weather is a factor in coffee production; the political climate also plays a role. In Africa’s Ivory Coast, a presidential election outcome may affect coffee production. If the outcome causes unrest on the part of the losing party, such unrest may affect commerce through such factors as the condition of roads. Also, the incumbent is from a party made up partly of planters, which has helped production. So what we have is a possible increase in demand for coffee at the same time as a coffee harvest drop. Because Brazil produces such a large share of the world’s supply, it’s unlikely, though not impossible, for the coming season’s production to approach last year’s. That being the case, the consumer needs to be aware that prices of our beloved favorite beverage may increase. We might be looking for ways to extend our coffee supply. We can also earn more e-beans and shop sales, such as ROASTe’s specials. Your suggestions are welcomed.



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